Moderate to Elevated Fire Weather across Missouri Today

Obs... Current surface observations continue to show much of Missouri dominated by high pressure, especially over the Ozarks. Satellite around 1445 UTC, satellite shows very little in terms of clouds over much of Central to Southern Missouri. Satellite does show some water vapor in the mid to lower levels, but seems to be struggling to mix down, which would be expected with the current surface conditions. As of 1445Z/0945CT, surface obs and RTMA data is showing temperatures in the mid 70's across eastern Missouri before increasing to the lower to mid 80's in western Missouri. Additionally, wind remains fairly light from the south/southwest, and humidity values are in the 40-50% across Southwest to Central Missouri, while relatively higher across northern and southeast Missouri, above 60% in many locations. Fuel moistures did recover somewhat overnight, however, in Southwest Missouri, 1500z/1000ct observations indicated that Mt.Vernon and El Dorado Springs has already fallen below 10%. Short Term... 825 and 500mb 13z HRRR guidance supports the push of a high pressure system in Oklahoma, and it will slowly make its way east during the day. This will provide some winds at the lower levels that could mix down to the surface, resulting in some more windier conditions than the last couple of days, likely 8-12 mph sustained, gusting up to 25 mph, across western Missouri into Central Northern Missouri, with the eastern extent of these winds being along a line from Mt.Vernon, to Bolivar, to Versailles, to Booneville and up to the Macon area. East of that line, winds will be likely a lighter, 5-10 mph, with gusts up to 15-20 mph. The timeline for the highest winds across the state looks to be from 1000-2000, and winds look to be mainly southerly from the most part, with southwesterly influence at times. The relative humidity will also drop again today as it has in the past few forecast periods. Humidity looks to start falling fast after 1000, and will continue till much of southern Missouri and into central Missouri gets into the 20% - 30% RH range. This range is a little higher than models are suggesting to account for the bias that has been observed over the last few days. Once the location gets past sunset, relative humidity will start to recover again, and the fire danger will once again be lower. Fire Danger... Moderate to Elevated Fire Danger will be in place for the entire state, with the elevated conditions primarily being in western to central Missouri. Locations south/west of a line from Poplar Bluff to Rolla, to Jefferson City, and over to Kansas City, will be in the elevated conditions. Fuel moistures are expected to become sub 9% rather rapidly, and will likely drop down to the 5-7% range across the elevated region. ~ CW