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Information About Our Plots
Show Me Fire has implemented the Fire Weather Annual Operations Plan (AOP) developed collaboratively by NWS St. Louis, NWS Springfield, NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, and NWS Paducah. By utilizing the same standards and guidelines used by meteorologists across the state, Show Me Fire and its partners are able to maintain consistent information and disseminate it throughout Missouri.
The complete AOP is available for public viewing at https://www.weather.gov/media/sgf/fire/aop.pdf, hosted by NWS Springfield. Show Me Fire appreciates all those who worked together to create a unified fire weather plan for the state of Missouri.
Our Fire Danger Assessments are based on the following matrices from the AOP:
Elevated Fire Weather Matrix
| Assuming 10-hr dead fuel moisture is less than 10% | 2-m Relative Humidity | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 20 | 20-24% | 25-34% | 35-44% | > 44% | ||
| 10-m Sustained Wind | 5-9kts | Elevated | None | None | None | None |
| 10-14kts | Elevated | Elevated | Elevated | None | None | |
| 15-19kts | Generally Critical | Generally Critical | Elevated | None | None | |
| 20-24kts | Generally Critical | Generally Critical | Elevated | Elevated | None | |
| > 24kts | Generally Critical | Generally Critical | Elevated | Elevated | None | |
In most cases, critical fire weather is Red Flag Warning conditons, but in some cases it might not properly align with the WFO required criteria.
See the matrix below on criteria for Red Flag Warning for each Warning Forecast Office
Fire Weather Watch and Red Flag Warning
| Red Flag Criteria | WFO Springfield | WFO Pleasant Hill | WFO Paducah | WFO St. Louis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20-ft sustained wind speed | 20 mph or stronger | 15 mph or stronger | ||
| 2-m RH | 25% or lower | |||
| 10-hr fuel | Lower than 9% | |||
There are some instances where conditons will be borderline, and the requirements around that are featured in the AOP linked above on page 16.
Show Me Fire aims to closely follow the guidance provided in the AOP and the matrices above. However, some variations may occur due to the mathematical interpolation process used to combine data from multiple observation stations. We strive to minimize these discrepancies and provide consistent, reliable fire weather information.
Please note that observation analysis and forecasts can be affected by a number of factors, including station spacing, data quality, terrain effects, and rapidly changing weather conditions. Always consult with local fire weather forecasts and warnings from the National Weather Service for the most authoritative information.
External Resources
The following links will take you to external websites not affiliated with showmefire.org. Content on these sites may change or be removed at any time without notice. Show Me Fire is not responsible for the accuracy, availability, or security of external resources.