Key Messages

• There is a marginal (1 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms for areas west of Highway 63 through Tonight. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.
• Highs in the 90s with heat index values of 100-105 during the upcoming work week.

Short Term

Rest of today: Will continue to see isolated to scattered convection over the far southeastern CWA push south while gradually diminishing. The marginal severe threat for 1 inch hail and localized 60 mph wind gusts will accompany these storms.

For tonight: Models have all trended toward the idea of a thunderstorm complex moving in from the west tonight into Sunday, with lingering convection then possible through the day Sunday. Confidence in overnight convection is much higher than daytime Sunday.

Threats tonight into early Sunday: Mainly localized 60 mph wind gusts. Heavy rainfall and isolated flooding may also be possible, with guidnance generally agreeing on localized rainfall amounts up to 3-4 inches (mainly from SE Kansas into central Missouri).

Threat the rest of Sunday: Highly dependent on evolution of morning storms. Models vary substantially in how this will unfold, but generally show a significant gradient in temperatures by Sunday afternoon ranging from the 70s across central MO to the 90s to the south. This may result in a tight CAPE gradient, with potential for MLCAPE values of 2,000-3,000 J/kg and 20-30 kts of shear. While no SPC outlook exists currently, likely due to uncertainty, a severe threat may develop.

Long Term

The long term will be marked by well above normal temperatures as an upper high to our SE continues to build our direction. Look for daily highs in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values of 100-105 possible. Friday may see cooler conditions, but models vary significantly on conditions by late week so confidence in any specifics is low.

There will be some 15-30% chances for showers and storms over the far northern CWA at times, but for the most part not expecting any significant rain chances.

Aviation

Showers and thunderstorms over far southwest MO this afternoon will continue to push southward, possibly lingering near KBBG into this evening. There is an uncertain threat for thunderstorms tonight into Sunday, with current probabilities around 30-40%.

Watches & Warnings

KS...None. MO...None.